In 2022, the total number of large-sized interactive flat panels shipped in Chinese Mainland will be 1.44 million, down 28.9% year on year and 15.1% year on year.
The sharp decline in market performance in 2022 was expected by all practitioners. China's social and economic environment is facing many obstacles. The epidemic has repeatedly led to the contraction of consumption of market entities, the degradation of consumption of residents, and the strong awareness of enterprises to spend the winter. Policies such as deep adjustment of real estate, epidemic prevention expenditure, tax refund and subsidies have stretched the funds of governments at all levels. Globally, the conflicts between China and the West have deepened, the war has caused regional panic, and the internationalization of Chinese enterprises and products has become more difficult.
Application scenario: The market is down, and the educational business is down by 30%
RUNTO divides interactive flat panels into E-IB (Educational Interactive Board) and C-IB (Corporate Interactive Board) according to application scenarios.
In 2022, the shipment of educational interactive flat panels was 996000, down 26.6% from 2021. K12 educational institutions at all levels in key regions of China are close to saturation. Although vocational education and higher education are the key areas of national development, the small base of schools and classrooms has failed to drive the growth of the overall market. In 2022, a considerable part of the demand in the field of education will occur in remote areas of developed provinces, low penetration areas such as Xinjiang and Yunnan, and sporadic procurement in some regions. RUNTO believes that the market performance in 2022 shows that in the short term, the transformation needs of non-multimedia classrooms in K12 still need attention.
During the same period, the shipment volume of commercial interactive flat panels was 443000, decrease 33.3% from 2021, but slightly up 2.5% from 2020. After the contraction of enterprise expenditure and the degradation of consumption have become the consensus of the whole society, when faced with the demand for remote video conferencing and collaborative office, users will first consider expanding the functions of existing conference equipment through peripherals, rather than directly updating and replacing them with interactive flat panels. Secondly, the lightweight audio and video hardware has also become one of the important new purchase options. The super price competitiveness of commercial LCD TV has formed a strong competition for interactive flat panels in the conference field. In addition, within about 6 years of development, the commercial interactive flat panel itself has still failed to form a clear understanding in the minds of the general public, let alone achieve phenomenal word-of-mouth communication.
Competition pattern: Matthew effect in the field of education; The variables in the commercial field can be expected
The competition pattern of the education flat panel market is relatively stable, and the market concentration is high. Because of its special field attribute, it has more value for product stability and service timeliness. Therefore, the traditional education quotient brand advantage is relatively significant.
According to the data of RUNTO, the top 3 brands in the Chinese market in 2022 will still be Seewo, Honghe and Hisense. The combined market share of the three brands is as high as 71%, of which, Seewo ranks the first with 47% market share, with a year-on-year increase of 6 percentage points.
In the market downturn, the competition between brands gradually became more and more direct, and the Matthew effect began to appear. If the following market fundamentals do not improve significantly, the educational flat panel brand will face a real competition of survival of the fittest, and then realize the supply clearance.
The pace of development of the education market is slightly different. The commercial market is still at a relatively early stage. For manufacturers, there are more opportunities than competition. According to data from RUNTO, MAXHUB will still take the first place in 2022, accounting for 26% of the market, up 2 percentage points from 2021.
Under the influence of the epidemic, traditional household appliance brands failed to fully exert their brand power, supply chain, e-commerce channels and sinking sales capacity.
Product structure: educational LCD blackboard stands out, with market share rising by 6%
RUNTO divides the interactive panel into P-IWB (Projection Interactive White Board), L-IWB (LCD Interactive White Board) and L-IBB (LCD Interactive Black Board) according to the product technology. Among them, LCD interactive whiteboard is applied in education and commercial markets respectively.
With the accelerated replacement of LCD products, the demand for projection interactive whiteboards continued to decline. In 2022, the shipment volume was about 13000 units, down 69.8% year on year, accounting for about 1% of the overall interactive flat panel market. The purchase of electronic whiteboard and projector is one of the important choices for users.
Due to the continuous decline in the price of upstream panels, the overall price of LCD interactive whiteboard will gain a certain competitive advantage in 2022. The overall shipment volume reached 1053000 units, including 610000 units in the education market and 443000 units in the commercial market. Among them, in the field of education, LCD interactive whiteboard continued to become the largest product category with 61.2% of the internal share.
The LCD interactive blackboard is a good segment of product category in 2022, with an annual shipment of more than 370000 units. Its market share in the overall interactive flat panel market increased by 6 percentage points to 25.9%. Whether in the education market or in the overall interactive flat panel market, the LCD interactive blackboard has more room for growth with its significant product experience advantages.
Education market outlook: 1.06 million units in 2023, up 6.5% year-on-year
Looking forward to the future, although the education market is facing problems such as high penetration rate and reduced school-age population, considering the replacement cycle of about 8 years, the replacement demand of K12 market is still worth looking forward to. If the stock update becomes the mainstream of the market, the market development will continue to maintain a stable pace.
In 2023, it is expected that with the economic recovery, the financial budget of governments at all levels will gradually ease, and the demand will be released. The growth rate of China's educational interactive flat panel shipments will reach 6.5%, and the total volume will rise to 1.06 million units again.
Commercial market outlook: optimistic overall, with growth range of 8~25%
Considering the current primary development stage of the commercial market and the relatively small market base, RUNTO continues to be optimistic about the overall development of the industry: the confidence of small and medium-sized enterprise users in the aftermath of the epidemic and the active participation of interactive flat panel brand competition, which will increase the overall market scale due to the superposition of factors at both ends of supply and demand.
However, the marketing strategy of interactive flat panel will continue to face challenges due to the squeeze of lightweight competitive products such as office projection and commercial television in the conference market. In addition, the consumption stratification caused by the epidemic and the habit of rational purchase will also promote some enterprise users to choose to use conference boxes, projectors and other peripheral accessories to realize the upgrading and transformation of traditional conference office scenes.
The business philosophy of enterprise users, the existing diversified office conference hardware environment, the recognition of flat panel products, the comprehensive experience before, during and after purchase, and the word-of-mouth spread of categories or brands will all affect the purchase choice, thus affecting the market sales. Although more and more enterprises are listing interactive flat panels on the purchase list, it still takes a long time to mature and digest the interactive flat panel products themselves in order to match the development speed of enterprises in Chinese Mainland and the diversified needs of enterprise buyers and become the standard configuration of enterprise office supplies from the current investment return rhythm.
Considering the above complex factors and the scar effect after the epidemic and the escalation of international conflicts, RUNTO is more inclined to give a flexible growth forecast for this year's commercial interactive flat panel market at this time point: in 2023, the growth rate of China's commercial interactive flat panel market will be in a wide range of 8 to 25%, and the total number of more than 520000 will be a high probability event. As the new beginning of the post-epidemic era, we need to pay attention to the adjustment, return, innovation and even subversion of the industry at all times.
